Key Data
This section provides an overview of key data and information in relation to Sutton to support the Market Position Statement. The data and information contained in this section provides an insight into the predicted resident population changes in Sutton and the potential impacts for Adult Social Care and the development of care and support services in the future.
In this section the heading of ‘Older Adults’ is used as general term for the adult population aged 65+ and the heading ‘Working Age Adults’ is used as a general term for the adult population aged 18-64 years old.
Additional to the information contained in this section, the Data.Sutton website is a data sharing website and contains a wide range of the most up to date local data and information to give an insight into our Borough, and how it compares both locally and nationally with other local authorities. Sutton’s Strategic Needs Assessment Needs Assessment can also be accessed on the Data.Sutton website. It’s purpose is to assess the local community’s current and future health and social care needs and inform recommendations on improving health and wellbeing and reducing inequalities for all ages.
The most recent census data (Population and household estimates for England and Wales: Census 2021) shows that Sutton has a total population of 209,600 compared to 8,799,800 for London and 56,489,800 for England as a whole.
Last Updated: 28 April 2023
Older Adults
Diagram 1 :10 Year Projection of Sutton’s 60+ Population Broken Down by Age Group
Data Source: Greater London Authority January 2023
The graph above shows that Sutton’s 60+ resident population is predicted to grow from 42,300 in 2021 to 55,300 in 2032. This is an increase of 31%.
Diagram 2 : Total Population Breakdown Between Working Age and Older Population
Data Source: Greater London Authority January 2023
Sutton’s adult population aged 20 to 64 is currently 4 times larger than its older adult population aged 64+. The predicted growth of the older adult population will outpace that of the adult population aged 20 to 64. By 2032 the older population will make up 25% of the adult population.
Diagram 3 : Yearly Percentage Breakdown of Age Groups (60 and over) from 2022-2032
Data Source: Greater London Authority January 2023
The three graphs above indicate that Sutton’s older population will grow over the next 10 years. There will be approximately 31% more adults over 60 in Sutton in 2032 than there currently is. This growth outstrips the growth of the working and younger age population and as such the older population will be a greater proportion of the overall population in Sutton. Within this increased older population it is expected that there will be a more even split across all age groups (60+) by 2032.
Diagram 4 : Breakdown of Age Groups within the Sutton Older Population
Data Source: Phase One Census 2021
The pie chart above shows that 65% of the older adults 60+ population in Sutton is aged between 60 and 75.
Diagram 5 : Size of Sutton’s Older Population with Comparison to our Geographical Neighbours
Data Source: Greater London Authority 2022
Sutton’s older population (42,400) is comparable to our London neighbours, but is significantly smaller than that of Surrey (296,000).
Diagram 6 : Percentage Breakdown of over 65s in Sutton in receipt of support from Adult Social Care
Data Source: Adult Social Care Sutton
Diagram 7 : Percentage Breakdown of over 65s in Sutton
Data Source: Adult Social Care Sutton
The pie charts above compare the percentage breakdown by age group of the older population in Sutton with the percentage breakdown by age group of the older population in Sutton receiving support from adult social care. The 80+ age group is less than 20% of the older population but represents 70% of those in receipt of support.
Although Sutton’s older population is growing, it is currently made up mostly of the least dependent age groups, however as this population ages further, it is likely that an increase for care and support will be required.
Working Age Adults
Diagram 8&9 : Projection of growth of the Working Age Population Broken Down by Age Group from 2022 to
Data Sources: Greater London Authority, Phase One Census 2021
Sutton’s working age population is set to slightly increase over the next 20 years from 138,000 to 143,000, an increase of 4%. Of the working age population, we can expect to see a greater proportion of the middle / older age groups, while the younger age groups (16-35) are predicted to shrink.
The growth of Sutton’s working age population does not match the growth of its dependent population. This will mean a greater level of dependency on the average working age person for caring responsibilities as well as a potential financial impact on services with fewer individuals paying income tax.
Gender
Diagram 10 : Percentage breakdown of Gender amongst Over-60s
Data Source: Greater London Authority, Phase One Census 2021, May 2023
For the adult 60+ population, women will be the majority for the foreseeable future. Women represent around 55% of the 60+ population.
Diagram 11 : Current Gender Splits Across the Sutton Adult Population
Data Sources: Greater London Authority, Phase One Census 2021, May 2023
Women make up about 52% of Sutton’s adult population with almost all age groups having between 1-2% more women than men. The gender split becomes more pronounced as the population becomes older. 51.7% of those aged 60 in Sutton are women, this number rises to 53.5% at the age of 70 and 56.7% at the age of 80. Of those aged 90+, almost 70% are women.
Women become the significant majority within older age groups of 70+. The 90+ age group of Sutton’s population is predominantly women. This is due to men having shorter life expectancy at birth and at the age of 65, caused mainly by a higher rate of heart disease in men. We should be aware that this means that we should expect to see higher rates of dementia and cancer within the women’s population in adult social care.
Ethnicity
The series of graphs below provide an overview of ethnicity changes in the population in Sutton.
Diagram 12 : Total Population Breakdown By Ethnicity with Past Data and Population Projections from the Greater London Authority
Data Source: Greater London Authority
Sutton has seen and will continue to see an increase in the non-white population from 25% of the population in 2015 to 35% of the population by 2040.
Diagram 13 : Ethnic Minorities Population Breakdown for 2012 for all ages (excluding White British)
Data Source: Greater London Authority
The pie chart above shows that in 2012 the largest ethnic minority groups (when excluding the White British population) were Other White (22%), Other Asian (18%) and Indian (12%).
Diagram 14 : Ethnic Minorities Population Breakdown for 2017 for all ages (excluding White British)
Data Source: Greater London Authority
The pie chart above shows that in 2017, there was (when excluding the White British population) an increase to 24% in those that identified themselves as Other White, whilst Other Asian and Indian remained the same.
Diagram 15: Ethnic Minorities Population Breakdown for 2022 for all ages (excluding White British)
Data Source: Greater London Authority
Again in 2022 the largest ethnic minority groups (when excluding the White British population) were Other White (25%), Other Asian (18%) and Indian (12%).
Diagram 16 : Ethnic Minorities Population Breakdown for 2027 for all ages (excluding White British)
Data Source: Greater London Authority
Over the next 20 years we are predicted to see growth in our ethnic minority groups within Sutton’s resident population. With current birth and immigration rates, we can expect to see ethnic minorities represent 1/3 of the population by 2040. There is also significant diversity within our ethnic minority population with no single ethnicity representing more than 27% of the population, when excluding White British.
With this change in the population it is vital that we develop diverse and culturally sensitive services that are able to meet not only care and support needs of our communities but also their cultural needs.
Life Expectancy
Diagram 17 : Historic and Future Life Expectancy (from birth) Data for Sutton and its London Neighbours
Data Source: Greater London Authority/Office of National Statistics
In Sutton, life expectancy from birth is expected to grow by 0.2 average life years to 82.4 years by 2040. This is higher than the England average of 81.7, but lower than some of our neighbours and the overall London average of 83.6 years.
Diagram 18 : Historic Life Expectancy (from 65) Data for Sutton and its London Neighbours
Data Source: Greater London Authority/Office of National Statistics
The average number of years a person is expected to live once they reach the age of 65 has increased significantly in Sutton and across England over the last 20 years. In 2001, the average 65 year old in Sutton would be expected to live to the age of 82.6 years but is now expected to live to 85.5 years.
One of the reasons that Sutton’s older population is increasing as a proportion to its general population is life expectancy. While life expectancy from birth has remained fairly stable, increasing by approximately 1 year every 10 years historically, life expectancy from the age of 65 has increased by 1.5 years every 10 years since 2000. In percentage growth terms this becomes more evident, with life expectancy at birth increasing by 1.25% every decade compared to an 8% growth per decade for life expectancy at the age of 65.
Dementia
Diagram 19 : Comparison Between Sutton, London and National Rates of Dementia Per 100,000
Data Source: Public Health England Fingertips Profile
The rate of diagnosis of dementia in Sutton for adults over 65 is 727 per 100,000 people. This is higher than the London average of 519, but lower than the England average of 755.
Diagram 20 : Dementia Prevalence Projections in Sutton and Neighbouring London Boroughs
Data Source: Projecting Older People’s Population Information (POPPI)
Sutton’s estimated 60+ population with dementia is estimated to grow by 40% from 2300 to 3300 between 2020 and 2040. This is comparable to our London neighbours. It should be noted this rate is an estimate of all those who may have dementia, regardless of their need or the impact of dementia on their lives, and as such this rate is higher than the diagnosis rates reported by Public Health England.
Depression
Diagram 21 : Moderate or Severe Depression Projections in Sutton and Neighbouring London Boroughs Amongst Men over 65 Years Old
Data Source: Projecting Older People’s Population Information (POPPI)
Sutton’s male older population with moderate or severe depression is set to increase over the next 20 years by 45% from 947 to 1364. This rate of increase is in line with that of our London neighbours of Croydon and Merton.
Diagram 22 : Moderate or Severe Depression Projections in Sutton and Neighbouring London Boroughs Amongst Women over 65 Years Old
Data Source: Projecting Older People’s Population Information (POPPI)
Sutton’s female older population with moderate or severe depression is set to increase over the next 20 years by 35% from 1812 to 2425. This rate of increase is also in line with that of our London neighbours of Croydon and Merton.
Depression is set to be a significant issue within the older population in the future. This will place extra burden on both adult social care and health provision not only in the need for clinical care for those with severe depression, but will create hidden burdens where people are suffering without a diagnosis and living in the community.
Long Term Illnesses
Diagram 23 : Number of over 65’s in Sutton and Neighbouring Boroughs with Long Term Illnesses that limit their lives by a little
Data Source: Projecting Older People’s Population Information (POPPI)
Sutton’s adult population over 65 living with low level limiting illnesses is predicted to increase by 41% over the next 20 years, from 7604 in 2020 to 10727 in 2040. This increase is comparable to the growth in low level limiting illnesses in our neighbouring London boroughs.
Diagram 24 : Number of over 65’s in Sutton and Neighbouring Boroughs with Long Term Illnesses that limit their lives by a lot
Data Source: Projecting Older People’s Population Information (POPPI)
Sutton’s adult population over 65 living with severely limiting illnesses is predicted to increase by 43% over the next 20 years, from 6517 in 2020 to 9377 in 2040. Again this is comparable to the predicted growth in our neighbouring London boroughs.
Long term limiting illness acts as a good predictor of those who may need care and support in the future, as this burden often leads to the need for extra or earlier care and support interventions for those managing and living with these illnesses. The growth of people with long term illnesses in Sutton means that we can expect to see a higher demand for services from individuals with more complex care needs within the adult social care market in the future.
Learning Disability and Autism
Diagram 25 : Moderate or Severe Learning Disability Projections to 2040 for 16-64s in Sutton and Neighbouring Boroughs
Data Source: Projecting Adults Needs and Service Information (PANSI)
PANSI (Projecting Adults Needs and Service Information) data predicts that there will be no significant change in the levels of learning disability in the working age population over the foreseeable future.
Diagram 26 : Current Rates of Learning Disabilities and Autism (Per 1,000 of appropriate population) in Sutton with a comparison to London and England
Data Source: Public Health England Fingertips Profile
According to PHE (Public Health England) data, Sutton has comparable rates of adults with a learning disability receiving long term support (4 per 100,000) to London and England averages. We have half the rate of children with autism known to schools compared to London and lower levels of children with learning disabilities than London and England.
Within adult social care, the area we can expect to see the least growth in demand is in learning disabilities. The working age adult population with learning disabilities is predicted to stay stable. There is a possibility that if our average learning disability and autism in children increases to match the London and national averages, we may see a significant growth in adults with learning disabilities and autism in the future.
End of Life
Diagram 27 : Rates of Deaths (Per 1,000 of the Over-65 Year Old Population) in Sutton Broken Down by Location of Death with a comparison to rates in London and England
Data Source: Public Health England Fingertips Profile
Sutton has slightly higher rates of deaths in care homes in comparison to London and England. Sutton and London have similar rates of total deaths, 52 per 1,000 amongst those 65+. This is higher than the England average of 45.